UN warns of record El Nino

AFP | Washington

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El Nino could be the strongest since records began four decades ago, the United Nations’ climate agency warned yesterday, with the UN chief warning the world is in the “danger zone of extreme weather”.

The naturally-occurring weather phenomenon is set to become “very strong” in the months ahead and is near certain to persist through to February, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said.

El Nino warms surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, bringing worldwide changes in winds, pressure and rainfall patterns.

“If this trajectory continues, it may be stronger than anything since our monitoring began -- so literally off the charts we have used for the past four decades,” WMO chief Celeste Saulo told reporters in Geneva. El Nino will peak towards the end of this year -- though its knock-on impacts for the climate will continue well into 2027, said the WMO.

Heat in the oceans releases more slowly into the atmosphere, pushing up global temperatures the following year.

The powerful 2023-24 El Nino contributed to 2024 being the warmest year on record, and “we should not be surprised if this record is broken”, Saulo added.

“El Nino is firmly established and will intensify into a very strong event in the coming months, with big impacts on rainfall and temperature patterns and associated risks of floods, drought and extreme heat,” the WMO said.

El Nino is a natural climate phenomenon and is not caused by climate change.

But scientists expect it will exacerbate the heat of a planet already warming from burning fossil fuels, while amping up weather extremes.

“El Nino is being supersized before our eyes,” said UN chief Antonio Guterres.

“The science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up. Sea surface temperatures are rising, temperatures keep climbing, and the world is in the danger zone of extreme weather.