'Super El Nino' raises fears for Asia reeling from Middle East conflict

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Bangkok: The convergence of a "super El Nino" and the Middle East conflict has placed Asia in a precarious position, threatening the region’s energy stability and food security. 

As the United Nations warns that El Nino conditions could emerge as early as May to July 2026, indicators suggest the event may be particularly intense.

This climate phenomenon arrives while Asia is already struggling with an energy supply crunch triggered by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The resulting combination of environmental and geopolitical pressures creates a "perfect storm" for the continent.

The energy sector is especially vulnerable. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted global fuel supplies, making fossil fuels expensive and scarce.

Simultaneously, El Nino-driven heatwaves will spike cooling demand while droughts sap hydropower in countries like Nepal and Malaysia. Agriculture faces similar strain; Indonesia is bracing for its lowest rainfall in 30 years, while southern China faces potential flooding during rice harvests. 

With rising costs for fertilizer and fuel, these weather extremes threaten to squeeze producer margins and worsen food insecurity. Experts emphasize that diversifying toward resilient green energy is critical to insulating the region from these compounding shocks.