China’s Birth Rate Hits Record Low Despite New Incentives

TDT | Manama

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China’s birth rate fell to its lowest level on record last year, underscoring the country’s deepening demographic challenges even as authorities introduce new measures to encourage couples to have more children.

Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that births declined to 5.6 per 1,000 people, the lowest level since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949.. The number of newborns dropped by 1.6 million from the previous year—the sharpest fall since 2020—to just 7.9 million.

The decline represents a setback for President Xi Jinping’s push to create a “fertility-friendly” society, which includes financial incentives for parents. China’s total population fell by 3.4 million to 1.405 billion, marking the steepest population drop since the Great Famine of the early 1960s.

Demographic pressures pose a growing threat to the world’s second-largest economy. A shrinking workforce and rapidly ageing population are tightening the worker-to-retiree ratio, placing increasing strain on China’s underfunded pension system.

In response, the government has rolled out a series of pro-natalist policies in recent years, including extended maternity and paternity leave and simplified marriage registration procedures. Couples are now eligible for annual subsidies of about $500 per child born on or after Jan. 1, 2025, until the child reaches the age of three. Authorities have also imposed a 13 per cent value-added tax on contraceptive drugs and devices, including condoms and morning-after pills.

However, experts remain sceptical about the effectiveness of these measures. He Yafu, an independent demographer, said the subsidies are “too small” to significantly boost birth rates. He pointed to young people’s reluctance to marry and a shrinking pool of women of childbearing age as key factors behind the decline.

The number of women of reproductive age fell by 16 million between 2020 and 2025, a trend partly attributed to the legacy of China’s decades-long one-child policy, which was abolished in 2015 but continues to shape the country’s demographic outlook.