Is Canada Falling Short on Its Climate Commitments?

Prime Minister Mark Carney, who succeeded Former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in March 2025, has officially acknowledged that Canada will fail to meet its 2030 and 2035 greenhouse gas emission targets under current policies. Since taking office, Carney’s minority government has prioritized transforming Canada into an "energy superpower," a shift that includes scrapping key environmental measures such as the individual carbon tax and emissions caps for the oil and gas sector. This policy pivot has led to significant internal friction, most notably the resignation of former Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault following a federal agreement with the oil-producing province of Alberta.

The administration’s shift toward aggressive energy expansion comes as Canada seeks to diversify its global trade markets and reduce its commercial reliance on the United States amid escalating trade tensions with President Trump. While the Canadian Climate Institute warns that emissions may rise due to the dismantling of Trudeau-era protections, Carney maintains that massive new investments in the energy sector will eventually lower emissions over the long term. Currently, Canada remains one of the world's highest per-capita emitters, having achieved only an 8.5% reduction in carbon emissions between 2005 and 2023.