Global Air Passenger Demand Drops 2.2% in May, IATA Reports

Global air travel demand declined in May 2026, reflecting the impact of geopolitical tensions and uneven regional performance, according to the latest data released by the International Air Transport Association (IATA).

Total passenger demand, measured in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK), fell by 2.2% compared to May 2025. However, when excluding the Middle East, global demand still showed a modest 0.7% increase, highlighting regional disparities in travel recovery.

Capacity Cuts and Record Load Factor

Total airline capacity, measured in available seat kilometers (ASK), decreased by 2.3% year-on-year. Despite the decline in demand and capacity, the industry achieved a strong performance in efficiency, with the global load factor rising to 83.5%, a record high for the month of May.

International vs Domestic Trends

International travel showed relative resilience, with demand falling 1.6% year-on-year. Excluding the Middle East, however, international traffic rose by 3.1%, indicating stronger performance in other global markets. Capacity in international operations declined by 2.4%, while load factor improved to 83.7%.

Domestic markets faced greater pressure, contracting by 3.1% year-on-year as capacity also dropped by 2.1%. The domestic load factor slipped slightly to 83.0%.

Middle East Conflict Impacts Global Performance

IATA highlighted that the sharpest decline came from the Middle East, where passenger demand dropped by 28.4% year-on-year. Although still negative, this marked a significant improvement compared to April’s 46.6% decline, suggesting partial stabilization in the region.

The report also noted weaker demand in North America and Asia, driven largely by conditions in the U.S. and Chinese domestic markets.

Industry Outlook and Fuel Price Pressures

Commenting on the results, IATA Director General Willie Walsh said the market remained broadly resilient despite global headwinds, including elevated fuel prices and geopolitical instability.

He noted that while falling oil prices are a positive development, disruptions linked to conflict—particularly risks around the Strait of Hormuz—continue to create uncertainty in energy supply and jet fuel pricing.

Walsh added that airlines operating on thin profit margins of around 2% may continue adjusting fares to offset higher costs, while demand shows signs of resilience even under price pressure.