Airbus Sees Demand for 3,830 New Aircraft in Middle East

Traffic expected to more than double by 2045 as urbanisation, rising incomes and aviation investment drive growth

The Middle East will need around 3,830 new passenger aircraft over the next 20 years as air travel in the region is expected to more than double by 2045, according to Airbus’ latest Global Market Forecast.

The forecast includes demand for 2,160 single-aisle aircraft and 1,670 widebody aircraft through 2045.

Passenger traffic to, from and within the Middle East is projected to grow at an annual rate of 4.7% over the period. Airbus said the region’s strong aviation outlook remains intact despite ongoing disruption and geopolitical volatility.

Existing orders for large single-aisle aircraft already account for around 45% of the region’s total projected 20-year demand, highlighting airlines’ plans to expand and modernise their fleets.

“The Middle East is one of the world's most dynamic aviation markets,” said Gabriel Semelas, President of Airbus Africa and Middle East. He said demographic growth, rising prosperity and major infrastructure investments were supporting fleet expansion and the shift towards more efficient and sustainable air transport.

Air travel growth is expected to be supported by rising disposable incomes and urbanisation, with the share of the population living in urban areas projected to reach 55%.

The region is also expected to add 240 million middle-class consumers, taking the total to 620 million. Trips per person are forecast to more than double in several major markets.

In Saudi Arabia, annual trips per capita are projected to rise from 1.6 in 2025 to 4.0 by 2045. In the UAE, the figure is expected to increase from 3.1 to 6.5 over the same period.

Billions of dollars in investment in airlines, major development projects and airport infrastructure are also reshaping the region’s aviation network, creating new hubs and supporting wider growth across the sector.

Airbus expects 97% of the Middle East’s aircraft fleet to consist of new-generation aircraft by 2035, compared with 45% in 2025. The transition is expected to improve fuel efficiency, operating performance and emissions levels.

The Middle East is also expected to become increasingly important to the development of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF). Airbus said sovereign investment strategies and national aviation plans are positioning regional airlines and other stakeholders to develop future SAF production hubs and support the aviation industry’s longer-term sustainability goals.