China’s Birthrate Hits Record Low as Population Shrinks for Fourth Straight Year

Email: online@newsofbahrain.com 

China’s population has shrunk for the fourth consecutive year, falling by 3.39 million in 2025 to a total of 1.405 billion. Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday revealed that registered births plummeted to 7.92 million, a 17% drop from the previous year and the lowest since the People's Republic was founded in 1949. In contrast to this, the Chinese government has officially ended a three-decade-long tax exemption on contraceptives, which it announced earlier this year, and was largely criticised over social media. As of January 1, 2026, condoms and birth control pills are subject to a 13% value-added tax (VAT), a shift from the tax-free status they enjoyed since 1993. 

This decline occurred despite Beijing’s aggressive push to reverse the trend, including a 90-billion-yuan investment in childcare subsidies and the removal of tax exemptions for contraceptives. Demographers note that the 2025 birthrate of 5.63 per 1,000 people effectively returns China to fertility levels roughly equivalent to those seen in the 18th century, a time when the nation’s total population was a mere fraction of its current size.

The demographic crisis is being compounded by a record-high death rate and an ageing workforce that is beginning to strain the nation's economic foundations. Deaths rose to 11.31 million in 2025, the highest rate since 1968, while the proportion of citizens over 60 has climbed to 23%. To mitigate the shrinking pool of active workers, the Chinese government officially began raising retirement ages on January 1, 2025, pushing the limit for men to 63 and for women to as high as 58. However, young citizens remain deeply reluctant to start families, citing the exorbitant cost of child-rearing, estimated at over six times the GDP per capita, and a high-pressure work culture that many feel is incompatible with parenthood.

Despite the grim annual totals, there is a minor glimmer of optimism for the coming year following a recent surge in marriages. After a record-breaking 20% drop in 2024, marriage registrations rebounded by over 8% in the first three quarters of 2025, boosted by a new policy allowing couples to register their unions anywhere in the country. Because marriage is historically the most reliable leading indicator for births in China, experts believe this ‘rebound’ could lead to a temporary spike in newborns in 2026. Nevertheless, with the number of women of reproductive age forecast to drop by two-thirds by the end of the century, policymakers face an uphill battle to stabilise a population that is ‘getting old before it gets rich’.