India Overtakes Japan to Become World’s Fourth-Largest Economy,

TDT | Manama

Email: mail@newsofbahrain.com

India has officially overtaken Japan to become the fourth-largest economy in the world, according to NITI Aayog CEO B.V.R. Subrahmanyam, citing data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Speaking at a press conference following the 10th NITI Aayog Governing Council Meeting, Subrahmanyam confirmed that India's nominal GDP has crossed the $4 trillion mark, pushing it ahead of Japan.

“We are the fourth-largest economy as I speak. We are a USD 4 trillion economy, and this is not my data—it’s IMF data. India today is larger than Japan,” Subrahmanyam said.

According to the IMF’s World Economic Outlook report released earlier this month, India’s GDP is projected to reach $4.187 trillion in 2025, narrowly surpassing Japan’s estimated $4.186 trillion. Only the United States, China, and Germany now stand ahead of India in global economic rankings.

Looking ahead, India is poised to surpass Germany and become the world’s third-largest economy within the next 2.5 to 3 years if it maintains its current trajectory. The IMF projects India’s GDP will climb to $5.58 trillion by 2028, outpacing Germany’s projected $5.25 trillion.

India continues to be the fastest-growing major economy globally and is expected to maintain a growth rate above 6% over the next two years — the only major economy to do so.

In contrast, both Germany and Japan are forecast to experience sluggish growth due to the ongoing global trade war. Germany is expected to see no GDP growth in 2025 and only 0.9% in 2026, while Japan’s economy is projected to grow at a modest 0.6% in both years.

Meanwhile, the United States remains the world’s largest economy, with its GDP expected to reach $30.5 trillion in 2025, followed by China at $19.2 trillion. However, both economies are predicted to witness slower growth, with the U.S. expected to grow at 1.8% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026.

Among other global projections, the Euro Area is forecast to grow by just 0.8% in 2025, recovering slightly to 1.2% in 2026. France’s growth is expected to hover between 0.6% and 1%, while the UK is projected to expand by 1.1% and 1.4% in those respective years. Spain is forecast to outperform most European peers with 2.5% growth in 2025, slowing to 1.8% in 2026.

India’s economic surge not only reflects its robust domestic growth but also signals a shift in global economic power toward emerging markets in Asia. With continued momentum, India is on course to claim its place among the world’s top three economies by the end of this decade.