EU monitor says sea temperatures near all-time highs as El Nino looms

AFP | Paris

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The European Union’s climate monitor said yesterday that ocean temperatures are edging toward record highs as conditions shift toward a potentially powerful El Nino weather pattern.

Samantha Burgess from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) said sea surface temperatures in recent days were just shy of the all-time highs of 2024 -- and May looked set to break its own record.

“It’s a matter of days before we are back in record-breaking ocean SSTs (sea surface temperatures) again,” Burgess, strategic lead for climate at ECMWF, told AFP.

The Copernicus Climate Change Service said daily sea surface temperatures in April “gradually inched” toward near-record highs, reflecting the transition to El Nino expected in coming months.

Copernicus, which is overseen by the ECMWF, said sea surface temperatures in April were the second-highest measured, with marine heatwaves breaking records in the ocean between the tropical Pacific and United States.

Last month, the World Meteorological Organization said El Nino conditions could develop as soon as May to July.

One phase of a natural climate cycle in Pacific Ocean temperatures and trade winds, El Nino influences global weather and increases the likelihood of drought, heavy rainfall and other climate extremes.

It also adds heat to a planet already warmed from burning fossil fuels. The last El Nino helped make 2023 and 2024 the second- and first-hottest years on record, respectively. Some weather agencies forecast the coming event will be even stronger -- possibly rivalling a “super” El Nino three decades ago.

Zeke Hausfather, a scientist at Berkeley Earth, an independent climate research organisation, wrote last week that a strong El Nino could significantly raise the chances of 2027 becoming the hottest year ever recorded.

Burgess said it was still too early to predict the event’s intensity with confidence as forecasts made during the Northern Hemisphere spring could be unreliable.

But she said regardless of its strength, this El Nino would not go unnoticed.